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Indian market will improve but not anytime soon: Experts

Thursday, October 06, 2011

The Nifty tried to conquer the 4,800 mark but failed and closed at 4,751 down 20 points, while Sensex too closed in red at 157992 down 72 points. Traders are quite nervous to trade in this market and are looking at much lower levels than what we are seeing right now.....



It was a volatile but range-bound session at the markets. Banks took it on the chin for the second straight day on the back of the State Bank of India (SBI) downgrade on Tuesday.

The Nifty tried to conquer the 4,800 mark but failed and closed at 4,751 down 20 points, while Sensex too closed in red at 157992 down 72 points. Traders are quite nervous to trade in this market and are looking at much lower levels than what we are seeing right now.

As markets continue to be volatile, most of the market experts don't see a deeper cut on Dalal Street from the current levels. Though they expect the lower levels to persist for some time, most of the analysts see market conditions improving in the longer run.

According to S Nagnath president and CIO, DSP BlackRock Investment Managers, it may well be that they go down further in October, rally in November and then there is a drift or range-bound bound movement for next year or two reflecting their low growth expectations as well  as the problems that will take many years to resolve.

“I believe this growth will rebound in fiscal 2013. I am optimistic that no matter what happens to global markets in 2012-2013, that if you allow for the next 3-6 months of volatility on account of external factors, our market should be in a reasonably good position to resume the uptrend,” he stressed.

We have had a modest underweight to India, stated Nicholas Ferres, investment director at Prudential AMC, adding, in principle that has been a valuation call.

“There has been some redemption pressure through the industry to some extent. Perhaps, we are seeing it in hedge funds as well. Possibly, it's also related to the issues with European banks and their ability to take on risk whether it's on emerging markets equities or on fixed income side as well. So its plausible that’s part of the story and given the flows into EM over the last couple of years, it's possible that grinding is still in the early stage of that and certainly something to watch for closely,” he said.

But India’s problems are more global than local.

We will remain hostage to the western environment for a long time unless finance ministers — past, present and future — recognise that the actual remedy for the Indian stock market is not to have more (TV) channels telling us what's going to happen to the world, but to tell us how do we get Indian savings working to the Indian mutual funds and Indian stock markets, remarked Ajit Dayal, Director, Quantum AMC, adding, “that is the real sort of remedy in our opinion.”....
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